NewsNotes - November 2006
Peace is not an absence of war, it is a virtue, a state
of mind, a disposition for benevolence, confidence, justice.
~Baruch Spinoza
Joseph Stiglitz and Linda Bilmes have released an update to their study released last January on The Economic Costs of the Iraq War. Originally their research and analysis predicted that the costs of the Iraq war were likely to be between 1.2 and 2 trillion dollars. This new update comes down firmly on the over $2 trillion side.
Some of the reasons for the change include: the faster than anticipate rise in costs; accrual vs. cash accounting methods; the unusually high number of disabled veterans; rising military recruitment and equipment replacement costs; and the rising cost of oil.
EPS at the ASSA
We will be hosting two sessions at this year's meetings in Chicago:
- Friday, January 5 at 10:15am in the Columbus room. Out How: The
Economics of Ending Wars, a roundtable discussion chaired by James
Galbraith, with:
- Thomas Schelling, University of Maryland
- Linda Bilmes, Harvard University
- Clark Abt, Abt Associates
- Col. Douglas MacGregor, Center for Defense Information, Straus Military Reform Project
- Michael Intriligator, University of California at Los Angeles, Milken Institute
- Saturday, January 6 at 2:30pm in the Skyway room. Women and War,
a joint session with IAFFE, chaired by Lourdes Beneria, Cornell University,
with:
- Jennifer Rycenga, San Jose State University, How Institutional Religious Structures Impede or Enhance Women's Participation on Issues of Peace, Security, Equality and Creativity
- Derya Demiler, Istanbul Bilgi University, Gender Dimensions of Internal Displacement in Turkey
- Jennifer Olmsted, Drew University, Gender and Military Occupation in Iraq and Palestine
- Robert Reinauer, University of Massachusetts - Amherst, Women and Post-conflict Economic Reconstruction in Guatemala
- Marguerite Waller, University of California - Riverside, Is Post-conflict Forced Prostitution a War Crime?
- Discussant: Elizabetta Addis, Universita degli Studi di Sassari
We will also hold our Annual Membership Meeting on Saturday, January 6 from 5:30pm to 6:30pm in the New Orleans room. The Annual Fellows Meeting will take place Sunday, January 7 from 10:00am to 12:30pm in the Burnham room.
Our Annual Dinner will honor William Baumol. The Host Committee is chaired by Alan Blinder, Princeton University, and includes: Elizabeth Bailey, University of Pennsylvania; Peter Dougherty, Princeton University Press; Ralph Gomory, Alfred P. Sloan Foundation; Boyan Jovanovic, New York University; Alvin Klevorick, Yale University; Burton Malkiel, Princeton University; Janusz Ordover, New York University; Richard Quandt, Princeton University; Andrew Schotter, New York University; Carl Schramm, Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation; Eytan Sheshinski, Hebrew University of Jerusalem and Princeton University; Robert Strom, Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation; Robert Willig, Princeton University; Edward Wolff, New York University; and Michael Worls, Thomson South-Western Publishers.
The dinner is generously supported by the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation and Thomson South-Western Publishers. It will take place Saturday, January 6 at 6:30pm in the Regency D room.
To request an invitation to the dinner, please contact Thea Harvey. theaharvey@epsusa.org
All events are in the Hyatt Regency, the main conference hotel.
Also this year in Chicago, EPS will have a booth in the exhibit hall, as we have at several past annual meetings. Our booth is all the way to the right as you enter the exhibit hall, right next to the coffee service.
We are looking for EPS members to volunteer to help staff the booth. If you can spare an hour during the conference, please contact theaharvey@epsusa.org
Call for papers: The 11th Annual Conference on Economics & Security will take place July 12 - 14, 2007 in Bristol, UK. Offers of papers are invited for a conference sponsored by Economists for Peace and Security, the Arms Production and Trade Group, the University of the West of England and the University of Bristol. The conference will have a public lecture, plenary sessions with keynote speakers, plus specialist workshop streams.
Proposed topics include:
- European Security
- Economics of the RMA
- Globalization and the Restructuring of the MIC
- Militarism and Development
- Economics of Conflict and Post-conflict Reconstruction
- Economics of the Arms Trade
- Procurement and Offsets
- Arms Races, Offsets and Alliances
- Peace Science
- Conversion and Demilitarization
- Terrorism
Offers of papers on other related topics are also welcome.
For more information on the call for papers, please see: http://carecon.org.uk/Conferences/Conf2007/Call2007.pdf
Please send a title and abstract as soon as possible and before April 30, 2007 to
Professor J. Paul Dunne
School of Economics
Bristol Business School
University of the West of England
Bristol, BS16 1QY
UK
To keep up with conference developments, visit: http://carecon.org.uk/Conferences/Conf2007/CONF2007.html
The Responsibility to Protect populations from genocide, ethnic cleansing, war crimes and crimes against humanity is an international commitment by governments to prevent and react to grave crises, wherever they may occur. In 2005, world leaders agreed, for the first time, that states have a primary responsibility to protect their own populations and that the international community has a responsibility to act when these governments fail to protect the most vulnerable among us.
The Responsibility to Protect-Engaging Civil Society (R2PCS) project
works to advance Responsibility to Protect (R2P) and to promote concrete
policies to better enable governments, regional organizations and the
UN to protect vulnerable populations.
Congratulations to Muhammad Yunus and Grameen Bank on their receiving the Nobel Peace Prize for their efforts to create economic and social development from below. In its press release announcing the award the Nobel Committee acknowledged the connection between economic growth and political democracy stating, "Lasting peace cannot be achieved unless large population groups find ways in which to break out of poverty. Micro-credit is one such means. Development from below also serves to advance democracy and human rights."
This was the first time since the Peace Prize was inaugurated in 1901
that it has been awarded to a for-profit institution. This article, Business
for Peace, from OnPhilanthropy.com discusses the blurring of the
lines between for-profit and non-profit, between business and philanthropy.
Mohammad Yunus calls Grameen a social business enterprise, meaning Grameen
is a for-profit business whose purpose is to create profits for a social
purpose. Yunus writes, “Grameen believes that charity is not an answer
to poverty. It only helps poverty to continue. It creates dependency and
takes away individuals' initiative to break through the wall of poverty.
Unleashing of energy and creativity in each human being is the answer
to poverty.”
http://www.onphilanthropy.com/site/News2?page=NewsArticle&id=6769&JServSessionIdr010=
wq6pttgay1.app8b
A new report by economist Sir Nicholas Stern, former chief economist
of the World Bank, suggests that global warming could shrink the global
economy by 20%. But taking action now would cost just 1% of global
gross domestic product, the 700-page study says. UK Prime Minister Tony
Blair said the Stern Review showed that scientific evidence of global
warming was "overwhelming" and its consequences "disastrous."
BBC article: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6096084.stm
For the executive summary, visit: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/30_10_06_exec_sum.pdf
To see some of the supporting graphs, go to: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/30_10_06_slides.pdf
Berlin-based corruption watchdog Transparency International (TI) has released its 2006 Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI). The index, which ranks 163 countries using a composite of multiple expert opinion surveys, points to a strong correlation between corruption and poverty. “Corruption traps millions in poverty,” said Transparency International Chair Huguette Labelle. “Despite a decade of progress in establishing anti-corruption laws and regulations, today’s results indicate that much remains to be done before we see meaningful improvements in the lives of the world’s poorest citizens.”
For more information from Transparency International, please visit: http://www.transparency.org/news_room/in_focus/cpi_2006
To see the ranking chart, go to: http://www.transparency.org/news_room/in_focus/cpi_2006/cpi_table
"This survey suggests that corruption in Iraq is very bad," TI Chief Executive David Nussbaum told Reuters News Service. "When you have high levels of violence, not only does security break down, but so do checks and balances, law enforcement and the functioning of institutions like the judiciary and legislature. If all that is under strain the very system that works to prevent corruption is undermined." http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=topNews&storyid=2006-11-06T102445Z_01_L05209879_RTRUKOC_0_US-CRIME-CORRUPTION-SURVEY.xml&src=rss
The small arms market has received considerable attention since the end of the Cold War. Small arms may be viewed as the specific capital of rebel groups yet no statistical analysis of this market for weapons has yet taken place due to the absence of data. This paper introduces the first effort to quantitatively document the small arms market by collating field reports and journalist accounts to produce a cross-country time-series price index of Kalashnikov assault rifles. The new data is used to quantitatively investigate the nature of the small arms market. A simultaneous equations demand and supply model of the small arms market is developed and empirically estimated to identify the key determinants of assault rifle prices. Variables which proxy the effective height of trade barriers for illicit trade, both within and between countries are consistently significant in weapon price determination. Neighbors’ average military expenditure is also a robust predictor of cheap weapon prices. When controlling for other factors, the collapse of the Soviet Union does not have as large an impact on weapon prices as is generally believed. http://www.csae.ox.ac.uk/workingpapers/pdfs/2006-13text.pdf
War in Sudan? Not Where the Oil Wealth Flows Despite the image of Sudan as a land of cracked earth and starving people, the economy is booming, with little help from the West. Oil has turned it into one of the fastest growing economies in Africa — if not the world — emboldening the nation’s already belligerent government and giving it the wherewithal to resist Western demands to end the conflict in Darfur.
http://therestoftheworld.wordpress.com/2006/10/24/war-in-sudan-not-where-the-oil-wealth-flows/
William Hartung, writing recently for tompaine.com sings We Arm The World. "While the US hangs its foreign policy on preventing the spread of 'weapons of mass destruction' (a worthy goal, however grossly the Bush administration goes about achieving it), it continues to ignore a more immediate threat — the proliferation of small arms and light weapons — that deserves serious attention as well. These low-tech arms have been described as 'slow motion weapons of mass destruction,' because they are responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths over the past dozen years, from the genocide in Rwanda to the ongoing civil war in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Yet yesterday, the United States, the world's largest arms supplier, voted against an historic United Nations proposal to curb traffic in arms."
http://www.tompaine.com/articles/2006/10/27/we_arm_the_world.php
These are just a few of the allegations levied against Halliburton, and its subsidiary Kellogg Brown and Root (KBR), by former employees, soldiers and their families as well as Pentagon and congressional investigators. In her article, Halliburton Hearts Congress, Frida Berrigan asks if partisanship and cronyism trump congressional oversight and corporate accountability?
Long-time EPS member Polly Cleveland writes occassional thought pieces entitled Econamici. After last month's EPS event with Peter Galbraith, she writes about her reaction to Ambassador Galbraith's book, The End of Iraq: How American Incompetence Created a War without End.
"From the day the war in Iraq became imaginable, my
husband and I have not missed a peace march. Nonetheless, as the slaughter
continues, I have worried about how the US can extricate itself. Ambassador
Peter Galbraith's book is reassuring, if that's the right word, that a
prompt withdrawal really can't make matters worse."
War Climates by Jeffrey Sachs, published by tompaine.com October 23, 2006.
"Consider...the situation in Darfur, Sudan. This horrible conflict is being addressed through threats of military force, sanctions and generally the language of war and peacekeeping. Yet the undoubted origin of the conflict is the region’s extreme poverty, which was made disastrously worse in the 1980s by a drought that has essentially lasted until today. It appears that long-term climate change is leading to lower rainfall not only in Sudan, but also in much of Africa just south of the Sahara Desert—an area where life depends on the rains, and where drought means death.
"Darfur has been caught in a drought-induced death
trap, but nobody has seen fit to approach the Darfur crisis from the perspective
of long-term development rather than the perspective of war. Darfur needs
a water strategy more than a military strategy. Its 7 million people cannot
survive without a new approach that gives them a chance to grow crops
and water their animals. Yet all of the talk at the United Nations is
about sanctions and armies, with no path to peace in sight.
"At the global level, the world’s governments should...understand that the treaties that they have all signed in recent years on climate, environment and biodiversity are at least as important to global security as all of the war zones and crisis hotspots that grab the headlines, budgets and attention. By focusing on the underlying challenges of sustainable development, our governments could more easily end the current crises (as in Darfur) and head off many more crises in the future."
http://www.tompaine.com/articles/2006/10/23/war_climates.php
Palgrave Macmillan is a global publisher of academic books in economics. Book proposals are welcome; they are particularly interested in developing a library of monographs. Submissions should be sent to:
Aaron Javsicas
Editor
Palgrave Macmillan
175 5th Avenue
New York, NY 10010
aaron.javsicas@palgrave-usa.com
http://www.palgrave-usa.com
Are We Safer? Five Years After the September 11th Attacks: Assessing the US Security Situation and Alternatives for Moving Forward. An Anthology of National Security Essays - September, 2006
It's the question on everyone's mind - are we safer? Members of the Security Policy Working Group have published a series of nine essays that address some of the issues that can help answer this fundamental question.
- Do Our Forces Match the Strategy?
- Terrorism: Our Primary Threat?
- $600 Billion Security Toolbox: What Are We Buying?
- Permanent War: A Given?
- Homeland Security: Are We Prepared?
- Use of Force: When Is It Necessary?
- Diplomacy and Prevention: Instruments of Power?
- US Role in the World?
To request a hard copy of the booklet, email theaharvey@epsusa.org. Click on the links below to view individual essays:
Pyrrhus on the Potomac: How America's Post-9/11 Wars Have Undermined US National Security. Carl Conetta, Project on Defense Alternatives http://www.proteusfund.org/spwg/pdfs/Pyrrhus%20On%20The%20Potomac.pdf
Terrorism or All-Hazards? Broadening Homeland Security. Anita Dancs, National Priorities Project http://www.proteusfund.org/spwg/pdfs/Terrorism%20Or%20All-Hazards.pdf
America's Post 9/11 Military: Can Congress Reform Our Shrinking, Aging, Less Ready, More Expensive Forces? Winslow T. Wheeler, Center for Defense Information http://www.proteusfund.org/spwg/pdfs/Post%209-11%20Military.pdf
Funding for Defense, Military Operations, Homeland Security, and Related Activities Since 9/11. Steven Kosiak, Center for Strategic & Budgetary Assessments http://www.proteusfund.org/spwg/pdfs/Funding%20For%20Defense,%20Military%20Operations.pdf
National Security Budgets to Make America Safer. Cindy Williams,
MIT Security Studies Program http://www.proteusfund.org/spwg/pdfs/National%20Security%20Budgets%20To%20
Make%20America%20Safer.pdf
Fighting the "Good Fight”: An Alternative to Current Democratic Proposals For a New National Security Strategy. William D. Hartung, World Policy Institute, Arms Trade Resource Center http://www.proteusfund.org/spwg/pdfs/Fighting%20The%20Good%20Fight.pdf
Is the War on Terror “Worth it?” David Gold, New School University http://www.proteusfund.org/spwg/pdfs/Is%20The%20War%20On%20Terror%20Worth%20It.pdf
Special Threat: US Nuclear Weapons Policy under the Bush Doctrine. Michael D. Intriligator, Economists for Peace & Security http://www.proteusfund.org/spwg/pdfs/Special%20Threat.pdf
Terrorism in Context: Assessing Risks and Solutions. David Colt,
Economists for Peace & Security http://www.proteusfund.org/spwg/pdfs/Terrorism%20In%20The%20Context
%20of%20Other%20Threats.pdf
The Mainstream Media Project is promoting the booklet, and arranging interviews for the authors of the essays. If you would like to read more about the compendium, see what the cover will look like, or book one of the authors for an interview, please visit: http://www.mainstream-media.net/alerts/current_alert.cfm?id=216
The journal is aimed at non-specialist readers, including policy analysts, policy and decision makers, national and international civil servants, members of the armed forces and of peacekeeping services, the business community, members of non-governmental organizations and religious institutions, and others. Contributions are scholarly-based, but written in a general-interest style.
Issues of the journal generally are theme-based and contributions are by invitation only; however, readers are invited to write to the editors (editors@epsjournal.org.uk) with proposals for a specific contribution or theme-based symposium (2 - 4 papers). Short letters of less than 500 words commenting on the published pieces are welcome.
The first issue is based on the ECAAR Review 2003, "Conflict or Development" (http://www.epsjournal.org.uk/Vol1/No1/issue.php). Volume 1, No. 2 is entitled "Peacemaking and Peacekeeping." These two issues are available free of charge as an introduction to the journal.
Annual subscription rates for future issues are as follows:
- Standard £22/$40/E€34;
- EPS members £16/$30/E€25;
- Unwaged/Developing countries £11/$20/E€17;
- Institutional £55/$100/E€85.
Fact Sheets: Periodically, we release these two-sided fact sheets designed to give an accessible, graphic look at one specific issue of concern to our members and constituency.
Global Arms Trade 2004 examines the world's supplies of conventional weapons and small arms. http://www.epsusa.org/publications/factsheets/globalarmstrade.pdf
Military vs. Social Spending: Warfare or Human Welfare compares US and global military spending with the costs of achieving the UN Millennium Development Goals. http://www.epsusa.org/publications/factsheets/milexMDG.pdf
The ECAAR Review 2003: Conflict or Development? This edition has a regional focus on Africa, the site of most of the world's current armed conflicts. In its pages some of the leading economists of the day analyze and reflect on the relationships among military spending, domestic and foreign policy, security, and human welfare. Features include country studies, sections on business and conflict, and “Trends in World Military Expenditure.” Written in clear English, with informative maps, tables, and graphs, the series is designed to inform the debate among policymakers, activists, journalists, academics, students, and citizens worldwide.
To order the Review, please email Thea Harvey (theaharvey@epsusa.org).
The Review can be a valuable tool in teaching economics, political science, and international relations courses. If you are interested in teaching this book, please contact Thea Harvey (theaharvey@epsusa.org) for a copy to review.
Data Resource webpage offers links to data sources for:
- International military expenditure and conflict indicators
- US military expenditure and capabilities
- Western Europe
- Russia
http://www.epsusa.org/network/data.htm. If you know of a data source that you feel should be added to our list, please contact our webmaster, Leilah Ward at leilahward@epsusa.org
Nuclear Threat Initiative and Families of September 11 recently sent three television announcements to every television station in the country and have asked them to put them on the air as a public service. The messages tell people what can and must be done to prevent terrorists from getting nuclear material in the first place. You can help to get these messages seen. To send a fax to your local television stations and encourage them to air these messages frequently, go to http://www.saferworld.org/c.luLVJaMQKpH/b.2024987/siteapps/advocacy/ActionItem.aspx?aid=7400
Escalating violence in the western part of Sudan has put the conflict in Darfur back in the headlines. The New York Times reported on October 23 that intense fighting has begun between a well-armed rebel alliance in Darfur, the National Redemption Front, and the Sudanese Armed Forces. Reports from the region suggest the Khartoum government is again arming local militias, known as janjaweed, to help carry out its brutal counterinsurgency campaign.
As both the government of Sudan and rebel groups escalate their fighting, the historically marginalized civilian population of Darfur will suffer the consequences of this new violence. The ongoing bloodshed and destruction of lives in Sudan compels urgent action.
Aerial bombings, sexual violence, food and water shortages, and murder of aid workers continue to take place in Darfur. While the situation in Darfur rapidly deteriorates, citizens and world leaders in the international community are placing increasing pressure on the Sudanese government to stop the violence in Darfur. The US and the international community need to continue to invest considerable diplomatic and financial resources in both immediate and long term aspects of an ongoing peace process: providing security, meeting humanitarian needs, and high-level political engagement.
Visit 10 things YOU Can Do For Darfur from Citizens for Global Solutions to find ways to help. http://www.globalsolutions.org/programs/peace_security/peace_ops/conflicts/darfur_take_action.html
To send a message to your members of Congress encouraging them to take action for Darfur, go to: http://capwiz.com/fconl/issues/alert/?alertid=9100146&type=CO.
Anyone who would be willing to put an EPS flyer up on a departmental bulletin board or similar venue, please contact Thea Harvey at theaharvey@epsusa.org.
November 17, 2006. The study group on the Economics of Security, co-sponsored by The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs, the Arms Trade Resource Center at the World Policy Institute, and the Center for Security Studies, ETH Zurich, presents Tom O'Donnell speaking on The Global Political Economy of Oil: US Policy in the Persian Gulf.
This session will be held at The New School, 66 West 12th Street, Room 510, New York, NY. Coffee and light snacks at 1:30pm; discussion will begin promptly at 2:00pm and will end no later than 4:00pm.
Upcoming sessions include: December 8 with Gordon Adams, George Washington
University and the Woodrow Wilson Center; and February 2, 2007 with Jack
Snyder, Columbia University.
November 20 - 21, 2006. International Conference for the Reform of International Institutions: Dialogues between Different Levels of Governance and Civil Society Actors at the headquarters of the International Labor Organization in Geneva, Switzerland.
November 30 - December 11, 2006. International Seminar on National Security sponsored by the International Centre for National Security Studies (ICNSS) at Galillee College in Nahalal, Israel. The program aims to deepen participants' understanding of current national security issues, to increase their capacity for innovative planning and implementation of policy in response to national security problems, and to improve their decision-making skills. Through interactive seminars, exercises, discussion groups and informal conversations, participants will have the opportunity to learn and understand how to cope successfully with national security problems and how to plan and formulate national security policies.
More information and registration forms can be found at http://www.galilcol.ac.il/page.asp?id=27
Featuring high level, international keynotes and leading experts addressing
the most topical and strategic issues, select from 5 streams or pick and
mix sessions to create your own agenda. http://www.counterterrorworld.com/page.cfm/Link=28/t=m/goSection=1/trackLogID=
103945_1FEFCAF27E
December 8, 2006. The study group on the Economics of Security, co-sponsored by The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs, the Arms Trade Resource Center at the World Policy Institute, and the Center for Security Studies, ETH Zurich, presents Gordon Adams, George Washington University.
This session will be held at The New School, 66 West 12th Street, Room 510, New York, NY. Coffee and light snacks at 1:30pm; discussion will begin promptly at 2:00pm and will end no later than 4:00pm.
February 2, 2007. The study group on the Economics of Security, co-sponsored by The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs, the Arms Trade Resource Center at the World Policy Institute, and the Center for Security Studies, ETH Zurich, presents Jack Snyder, Columbia University.
This session will be held at The New School, 66 West 12th Street, Room 510, New York, NY. Coffee and light snacks at 1:30pm; discussion will begin promptly at 2:00pm and will end no later than 4:00pm.
March 15 - 18, 2007. 63rd International Atlantic Economic Conference in Madrid, Spain. http://www.iaes.org/conferences/future/madrid_63/index.htm
July 12 - 14, 2007. The 11th Annual Conference on Economics & Security will take place in Bristol, UK, sponsored by Economists for Peace and Security, the Arms Production and Trade Group, the University of the West of England and the University of Bristol. The conference will have a public lecture, plenary sessions with keynote speakers, plus specialist workshop streams.
Call for papers: http://carecon.org.uk/Conferences/Conf2007/Call2007.pdf
To keep up with conference developments, visit: http://carecon.org.uk/Conferences/Conf2007/CONF2007.html
If you have enjoyed this issue of EPS NewsNotes, or if you wish to support our mission, please consider making a donation to EPS. You can do so securely online through our website or by sending a check to:
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