Occasional Papers

Effects of Large-Scale Violent Events on the Demand for International Scheduled Air Traffic

A report by Jurgen Brauer and J. Paul Dunne, commissioned by the Arsenault Family Foundation

The terror attack of 11 September 2001 (“9/11”) on the United States put the threat of deadly violence from large-scale violent events very much in the public eye. It was widely thought that the general level of real or perceived (in)security might have long-term effects on corporate and industry performance. In particular, the global airline industry must have suffered a significant drop in demand.  Using data from the International Civil Aviation Organization, this report considers panel data from 443 airlines. We find that, in fact, global air traffic was not greatly affected by the general level of terrorist attacks worldwide, and that it takes a truly exceptional event such as 9/11 to find a measurable impact. The industry has overstated the impact of large-scale violent events. While specific airlines suffer from specific adverse events, global air traffic demand for the industry as a whole appears fairly resilient to violent shocks.

Read the full report here.

Conflict or Development?

Joseph Stiglitz discusses the role of information in conflict and draws a fascinating analogy between civil strife and a labor strike. Paul Collier and Neil Cooper take different positions on the prospects for reforming war economies, and E. Wayne Nafziger gives details of the evolution of humanitarian emergencies. In the two country studies, Tilman Brück examines the destruction and reconstruction of Mozambique, and Manuel Ferreira discusses the civil war in Angola. Paul Dunne tells the story of South Africa's defense contractor Denel from its origins under apartheid until today, and David Gold describes the context and history of the current actions against "Conflict Diamonds." In the chapter on "Trends in World Military Expenditure," Jurgen Brauer reflects on the weight imposed by the world's military burden.

Published 2003. To order, send an e-mail to theaharvey@epsusa.org.

The Full Costs of Ballistic Missile Defense

The first and still the only independent study of the full costs of the proposed multi-layered system, including land, sea, air, and space-based components. Edited by Richard Kaufman, preface by Kenneth Arrow, articles by Rodney Jones, William Cox, and David Gold.

Executive summary in .html, click here. Full report in .pdf, click here. To order print version, send an e-mail to theaharvey@epsusa.org.

After Kosovo

A collection of essays proceeding from a 1999 Capitol Hill seminar on lessons learned from the NATO campaign in Kosovo. Authors include Richard Kaufman, Kori Schaake, Michael O'Hanlon, and James K. Galbraith.

Print version is available for cost of postage; to order, send an e-mail to theaharvey@epsusa.org. Free .pdf download, click here.

Disarmament & Development

Proceedings from a 1998 UN symposium, with articles by Lawrence Klein, Michael Intriligator, and Jayantha Dhanapala.

Print version is available for cost of postage; to order, send an e-mail to theaharvey@epsusa.org. Free .pdf download, click here.

Military and Civilian Trade-Offs in Guatemala: An Econometric Approach

1997 paper by Lawrence Klein, Kanta Marwah, and Thomas Scheetz.

Print version is available for cost of postage; to order, send an e-mail to theaharvey@epsusa.org.